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A mediation question needs a timeline

Write down exposure, mediator and outcome at each wave before fitting anything.

Topic
Causal inference
Analysis
Jul 2026
Status
Working note

For longitudinal data, write down the exposure, mediator and outcome at each wave before fitting a model. Prior outcomes and exposure-affected covariates can change which direct or indirect effects are identifiable.

I keep intervention-regime estimands separate from within-person associations. Both can be informative, but they answer different questions.